MQ-25 Stingray

01 / Program record

The promise, the revision, and the forecast

MQ-25 is intended to take aerial-refueling work off carrier-based F/A-18E/F fighters, with intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance as a secondary mission. This edition follows the MQ-25 Air System, program number 462, and relevant carrier-integration evidence. The Unmanned Carrier Aviation Mission Control System (UMCS) is a separate, interdependent program; it is not silently folded into every aircraft-program total. S01 · pp. 5, 7, 13

At its August 2018 development award, the Navy described an $805.3 million ceiling covering design, development, fabrication, testing, delivery and support of four aircraft, including integration for IOC by 2024. That was the original development contract’s scope, not a fixed $805.3 million price for the entire future fleet. The MSAR preserves the original August 24, 2018 Acquisition Program Baseline (APB), a September 12, 2024 revised baseline, and its subsequent estimates. S02 · opening two paragraphs, S01 · pp. 10, 22

The 54-month comparison is between the original IOC objective and the current forecast, not two actual delivery dates. February 2029 is also 31 months after the revised July 2026 objective and 19 months after its July 2027 threshold. The report marks a baseline deviation and says another APB revision will follow the production decision. This edition does not relabel that forecast as an approved new baseline. “First flight” in this table is the fleet-representative program milestone, not T1’s 2019 flight. S01 · pp. 9–11

Why the schedule moved

The Navy attributes delays to technical and production difficulties, test discoveries, weather and flight-clearance documentation; its IOC explanation also cites the FY2025 funding mark, production-line adjustments and Boeing’s labor strike. These are attributed explanations, not a calculation of each cause’s contribution. GAO’s July 2026 assessment separately describes difficulties building test aircraft, including wiring, vibration monitoring and parts qualification, plus the risks of overlapping testing with initial production. GAO also records first flight and production approval as post-review updates. S01 · pp. 7–11, S08 · p. 152, Program Performance / Program Office Comments

02 / Program record

A dated program history

These are selected turning points, not an exhaustive event log. Decisions, contract awards and tests mean different things. Planned milestones are explicitly labeled.

1. Aug 30, 2018Contract

   Reported event

   Development award

   Boeing receives the initial development award: $805.3m ceiling, four aircraft, stated IOC by 2024. S02

2. Sep 2019Test

   Reported event

   T1 flies

   First flight of the Boeing-owned demonstrator; not the later fleet-representative milestone. S01

3. Sep 13, 2021Test

   Reported event

   Three receiver types demonstrated

   T1 refuels an F-35C, after F/A-18 and E-2D demonstrations earlier in 2021. S04

4. Dec 2021Test

   Reported event

   Carrier deck demonstration

   T1 day/night deck-handling work aboard USS George H.W. Bush; not a carrier launch or recovery. S05

5. Sep 28, 2022Contract

   Reported event

   Long-lead procurement

   $47.468m advance-acquisition award for LRIP Lot 1. Not delivery of the lot. S15

6. Oct 2023Funding

   Reported event

   Development extension changes funding

   MSAR records approval of an above-threshold reprogramming from procurement to RDT&E after the LRIP delay; this edition does not reconcile the transfer amount. S01

7. Mar 29, 2024Contract

   Reported event

   Two more demonstration aircraft

   P00067 adds SDTA aircraft and related tooling/obsolescence work. $657.09m action; $288.635m obligated at award. S14

8. Sep 12, 2024Decision

   Reported event

   Baseline revised

   EMD extension reflected in a revised APB; IOC objective July 2026, threshold July 2027. S01

9. May 2025Delivery

   Reported event

   First air test vehicle received

   DOT&E reports Navy receipt; not a formal-acceptance tally or an operational delivery. S03

10. Mar 2026Delivery

    Reported event

    Carrier control infrastructure

    MSAR reports a deployable MQ-25-capable UAWC aboard USS Theodore Roosevelt. The air system has not thereby reached IOC. S01

11. Apr 25, 2026Test

    Reported event

    EDM 3 takes flight

    First fleet-representative flight, approximately two hours, using the UMCS ground-control system. S06

12. May 18, 2026Decision

    Reported event

    Production approved

    Milestone C / KP-6 approves entry into production and deployment; Navy announces it May 19. Not IOC. S01

13. Jul 17, 2026Contract

    Reported event

    Norfolk facilities awarded

    MQ-25 laydown construction contract: $117.755087m value, $65.817578m first obligation increment. S16

14. Aug 31, 2026Contract

    Reported event

    EMD engineering scope added

    P00094: $12.680717m for component integration and security-assessment corrections, obligated at award per announcement. S17

15. Feb 2027Test

    Forecast

    First carrier flight

    Current MSAR forecast; no actual carrier flight established by this edition. S01

16. FY2028Delivery

    Forecast

    First operational delivery

    Fielding-plan forecast, not test-vehicle receipt and not IOC. S01

17. Feb 2029Decision

    Forecast

    Initial operational capability

    Current forecast, 54 months after the original August 2024 objective. S01

03 / Program record

The money: estimates are not spending

A like-for-like acquisition comparison

The current acquisition estimate is $13.8819 billion in constant 2018 dollars, compared with the original $12.6183 billion and revised $13.3244 billion objectives. This is about 10.01% above the original and 4.18% above the revised baseline. It is an estimate of acquisition resources, not a bill already paid. S01 · pp. 13, 15

Total planned aircraft remain 76, but the mix changes from 4 development + 72 procurement to 9 development + 67 procurement. Ground-control stations are excluded from that aircraft count. Thus an unchanged total does not mean unchanged development scope or procurement quantity. The source’s current $200.734 million average procurement unit cost divides then-year procurement cost by 67; it is not a quoted flyaway price or the cost of every individual aircraft. S01 · pp. 13, 15

The MSAR also expresses the current acquisition estimate as $19.4408 billion in then-year dollars. Comparing that directly with the original $12.6183 billion in 2018 dollars would mix price bases. Its $37.0193 billion then-year operating-and-support estimate is a separate life-cycle category, not part of the acquisition number and not money spent today. That support estimate assumes 74 aircraft to sustain, a 20-year unit service life and operations in FY2029–FY2059; those are its own scope assumptions, not the 76-aircraft acquisition denominator. S01 · pp. 13, 18–19

For historical execution context, the report lists $4.4349 billion in appropriations and $2.3281 billion in expenditures “actual to date.” It does not provide a transaction-level reconciliation or a separate cutoff for those cells. We retain them as source-reported aggregates—not September 12 cash balances, not independently audited spending, and not amounts to add to annual budgets or contract records. S01 · p. 25, Acquisition Funding

Selected FY2026 and FY2027 funding records

All amounts below are nominal U.S. dollars in millions, converted from the budget exhibits’ thousands. They concern specific accounts and rows, not the entire program. A President’s Budget request does not become enacted funding because it is printed in an official book.

For FY2026, the DD1414 shows the main procurement row moving from $407.046 million requested to $387.686 million appropriated base, a $19.360 million reduction labeled “Obsolescence unjustified request.” The P-1 separately places $100 million in its PL119-21 spending-plan column, for a main-row FY2026 total of $487.686 million; $52.191 million of advance procurement is another row. The allocation plan describes intended support for LRIP Lot 1. Its March 2026 planned award date is not evidence that the award occurred in March. S10 · N-15, S09 · pp. 97–98, S12 · p. 59, item 14

For FY2027, the procurement exhibit shows $823.368 million gross, subtracts $52.191 million of prior-year advance procurement, and arrives at a $771.177 million net request for the main row. It requests $80.965 million of new advance procurement separately. Counting gross plus both advance-procurement amounts as new FY2027 money would double-count the prior-year portion. The three-aircraft procurement quantity is a budget quantity, not a delivered-aircraft count. S09 · pp. 97–98, rows 17–18

The RDT&E line changes—and is shared

The FY2027 R-1 shows $513.308 million requested under PE 0207255N, MQ-25 Stingray. The MSAR explicitly records an FY2027 realignment from 0605414N, Unmanned Carrier Aviation, to 0207255N, retaining project 3278 in RDT&E account 1319N and changing budget activity 05 to 07. This is a budget crosswalk, not evidence that an executed transfer has been reconciled. S11 · p. 33, line 237, S01 · p. 16

Both MSAR RDT&E rows are marked Shared. The older row’s note limits sharing with UMCS to through FY2018; the destination row says it shares a “PU” with Stingray to the Fight. The source does not expand “PU” or provide a program-only dollar split here. We therefore do not attribute all $513.308 million to the MQ-25 Air System or join the two PEs into an apparently seamless spending series. Procurement line 0449 is a line-item identifier, not P-1 display sequence 17; spares line 0605 and the report’s OTHER/0449C note must also remain separate. S01 · p. 16, Shared definition and row notes

04 / Program record

Contracts: a ceiling, an action, and an obligation differ

The program-to-award connection is explicit: the MSAR names Boeing’s N00019-18-C-1012, effort 1, as MQ-25 Engineering and Manufacturing Development. N0001918C1012 is its hyphen-free database form. The confirmed link supports examining that award; it does not make it the whole program. S01 · p. 22

The fresh USAspending response reports $1,843,827,977.96 in cumulative obligations for the EMD award, with a June 1, 2026 last-modified date, retrieved September 12. That is one database award aggregate, not the MQ-25 total and not a September 12 transaction cutoff. We do not add the August 31 announcement to it without reconciling modifications and reporting coverage. Nor do we sum this aggregate with historical actions already potentially inside it. S13 · exact JSON fields in appendix, S17 · Boeing / P00094

For another view, the MSAR’s effort-1 contract block reports an initial $805.3 million ceiling and current $1,976.7 million target/ceiling, with modification P00089 dated April 22, 2026. Its narrower CLIN scope and reporting dates differ from the award database. Scope additions and mixed contract types prevent a simple “ceiling growth equals overrun” conclusion. The 2024 modification, for example, adds two demonstration aircraft, tooling and obsolescence work; its $657.09 million action value was not all obligated at award. S01 · pp. 22–23, S14 · Boeing / P00067

The Norfolk facilities award is included because its official description explicitly names MQ-25. It illustrates another boundary: $117.755087 million of contract value, but $65.817578 million for the first obligation increment. It is construction—not another aircraft buy. This selected contract list is not a complete inventory of prime contracts, orders, modifications or subcontractors. S16 · Grunley / N40085-26-C-0017

05 / Program record

What has actually been demonstrated or delivered?

Delivery is a particularly important gap. DOT&E says the Navy received its first air test vehicle in May 2025; the MSAR separately dates EDM 3 assembly completion to July 2025. These descriptions do not establish equivalent acceptance criteria, and this edition does not silently force them into a single handover date. The MSAR’s end-item delivery cells are blank/dashes; its contract-effort table’s “0 delivered” is not a fleet-aircraft inventory. A verified September 12 accepted/delivered total is not available in this evidence set. S03 · pp. 177–178, S01 · pp. 7, 22, 25

The distinction extends to the carrier. The MSAR reports a deployable MQ-25-capable Unmanned Air Warfare Center aboard USS Theodore Roosevelt in March 2026. That is carrier control infrastructure, not a declaration that an operational MQ-25 tanker detachment exists. Its end-August 2026 target for USS Ronald Reagan is not promoted to an actual event simply because the date is past; this review did not establish its completion. S01 · p. 7

The Navy’s published performance table keeps Nimitz/Ford carrier suitability and the refueling requirement’s demonstrated performance as TBD. It lists a 16,000-pound objective, a 14,000-pound threshold, and a current estimate of at least 14,000 pounds delivered at 500 nautical miles from the carrier. The prototype demonstrations do not establish that entire fleet requirement. In its FY2025 assessment, DOT&E found insufficient evidence to assess operational effectiveness, suitability and survivability and recommended an adequate operational assessment before IOC. That retrospective judgment is not a claim to know all testing conducted since the report. S01 · p. 12, S03 · pp. 178–179

06 / Program record

What the public record still cannot settle

• The next operational result. First carrier flight is forecast for February 2027; first operational delivery for FY2028; IOC for February 2029. None is an actual outcome in the reviewed MSAR. A formal declaration and supporting operational test evidence would materially change this edition. S01 · pp. 10, 25
• The post-Milestone-C award and baseline position. The report authorizes LRIP Lots 1 and 2, three aircraft each, and advance acquisition for Lot 3. Authorization to award is not an executed aircraft contract. This review did not independently verify a subsequent LRIP production award or a superseding approved APB; that is a bounded gap, not a claim that neither exists. S01 · p. 24
• A date on the cover is not a complete version history. The MSAR says effective April 21, 2026 but includes an April 22 contract modification, the April 25 flight, and May 18 production approval. The original same-day retrieval reported HTTP Last-Modified July 29. Neither the cover nor that HTTP header establishes the public-release date of every included fact. Event dates, document labels and retrieval dates are preserved separately. S01 · pp. 1, 8, 10, 22, 24
• Not every official table agrees with itself. The production page pairs six LRIP aircraft and 7.9% with a rationale saying the quantity exceeds 10%, and labels 76 as total procurement while the acquisition table separates 67 procurement plus nine development aircraft. We use the expressly authorized six-aircraft lots, but do not repair or chart the conflicting percentage/denominator. S01 · pp. 13, 24
• The financial perimeter is incomplete. Shared program elements, separately managed UMCS, construction, spares, reporting lag, modifications and incomplete execution records prevent a dollar-by-dollar program ledger. Missing or withheld information is not zero. There is no supported total of “wasted money” in these records.

07 / Program record

How to read this edition

Request means a proposed budget amount. Enacted/appropriated base is the funding position reported after congressional and presidential action, not proof it has all been obligated. Spending plan is the source’s allocation presentation. Obligation is a reported government commitment; expenditure/outlay concerns disbursement, with source-specific coverage. Contract value or ceiling does not establish either. The tables retain their fiscal year, scope, price basis and source labels.

Production approval, airframe assembly, test-vehicle receipt, formal acceptance, operational delivery, IOC, and demonstrated effectiveness are distinct observations. An agency or contractor announcement establishes what that party reported; a government oversight assessment provides a different evidentiary lens.

The cutoff review combined the existing same-day official PDFs with fresh official-site searches for MQ-25, recent contracts, tests, production and IOC; direct budget/API retrievals; and browser retrieval of Navy, NAVAIR, acquisition-report and contract pages. Direct HTTP access to several military/GAO pages returned 403, while browser retrieval and the earlier preserved receipts supplied readable evidence. The P-1, R-1 and DD1414 fresh downloads matched the earlier hashes; the EMD award API was refreshed. Congress.gov’s current CRS product page could not be inspected, so it is not used to establish the latest position. This is a substantive but bounded review, not a guarantee that every current public record was discovered.

08 / Evidence

Source appendix

Page references below distinguish PDF page number from the page printed on the document. All sources were reviewed September 12, 2026. Document and event dates are listed separately when they differ. Links open the original publisher’s material; PDF page anchors are navigation aids and depend on the reader. The downloadable source records include receipt hashes and access limitations. The page does not mirror incidental personal contact details or third-party photographs from government documents.

09 / Program record

Edition history

September 12, 2026 · 1.0 — First complete MQ-25 edition. Adds the narrative, preserved baseline comparison, selected financial and contract records, demonstrated-results analysis, source appendix and static program page. The earlier six-claim calibration remains intact and is not relabeled as a full dossier. No earlier edition is overwritten. The original research cutoff is retained. Collection edition 1.0 adds home, method, source and correction navigation alongside the separately reviewed KC-46A record; it does not extend MQ-25’s factual cutoff. No Sentinel edition is included.